The National Instant Background Check System (NICS) numbers for March 2024 are significantly lower than March 2023. Gun sales for March this year, at 1.39 million, are 92% of last year’s, at 1.51 million. They are the lowest sales for March back to 2019. While this shows a drop in sales since the extraordinary sales levels in the election year of 2020, it is a relatively high number.
The NICS check numbers are even lower. They are the lowest recorded for March since 2017. There is only a mild link between NICS checks and firearms sales, because NICS checks are used for many things as well as firearms sales.
Individual states such as Kentucky and Illinois have systems that do NICS checks on hundreds of thousands of people every month. The NICS checks for firearm permits and permit rechecks were over a million for March 2024. They are highly variable by state. The trend to Constitutional, or permitless carry, has slowed the number of applications for carry permits, though they are extremely popular. The number of permits in 2023 is about the same as in 2022, with about 20 million permits in the USA. This could change dramatically if the US Supreme Court slaps down the defiance in states such as New York, Maryland, California, and New Jersey In eight highly restrictive states, the legislatures continue to add difficulties to carry permit applications. The potential number of people desiring permits in those highly restrictive states is, conservatively, another 4-8 million people.
Firearm and accessory prices appear to be dropping with the drop in sales, in direct contradiction to monetary inflation. The bogging down of the economy is likely having an effect, as people cut back on elective purchases and individual debt is piling up. If the choice is food, gas, or another AR15 and a case of ammunition, food and gas will usually get the nod.
Continuing with the long-term trend, handguns are the most popular firearms in NICS, with about 56% of the sales. Long guns are about 33% of the sales. Checks for other and multiple sales make up the remaining 11%.
Live Inventory Price Checker
Conventional wisdom is a presidential race with Donald Trump as one of the candidates would be a significant boost to firearm sales. This year, much will depend on whether former President Trump is able to take the nomination (which seems likely), or is placed in serious legal jeopardy (depending on the success of the Democratic party lawfare), or if President Biden hangs on long enough to secure the Democratic Party nomination. All those outcomes appear cloudy in this correspondent’s crystal ball. The Biden Administration’s war on firearm sales, the gun culture, and the Second Amendment will add a bit to firearm sales. The people who are aware of these atrocities may already have their firearms and ammunition wants/needs satisfied.
The election season is a good time to take a friend to the range, or to help a person register to vote.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
